Sunday, October 26, 2008

Is the Worst yet to Come?

Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come

When this man predicted a global financial crisis more than a year ago, people laughed. Not any more...

As stock markets headed off a cliff again last week, closely followed by currencies, and as meltdown threatened entire countries such as Hungary and Iceland, one voice was in demand above all others to steer us through the gloom: that of Dr Doom.

For years Dr Doom toiled in relative obscurity as a New York University economics professor under his alias, Nouriel Roubini. But after making a series of uncannily accurate predictions about the global meltdown, Roubini has become the prophet of his age, jetting around the world dispensing his advice and latest prognostications to politicians and businessmen desperate to know what happens next – and for any answer to the crisis.

While the economic sun was shining, most other economists scoffed at Roubini and his predictions of imminent disaster. They dismissed his warnings that the sub-prime mortgage disaster would trigger a financial meltdown. They could not quite believe his view that the US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would collapse, and that the investment banks would be crushed as the world headed for a long recession.

Yet all these predictions and more came true. Few are laughing now.

What does Roubini think is going to happen next? Rather worryingly, in London last Thursday he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and stock markets may soon have to shut – perhaps for as long as a week – in order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world.

What happened? The next day trading was briefly stopped in New York and Moscow.

Dubbed Dr Doom for his gloomy views, this lugubrious disciple of the "dismal science" is now the world's most in-demand economist. He reckons he is getting about four hours' sleep a night. Last week he was in Budapest, London, Madrid and New York. Next week he will address Congress in Washington. Do not expect any good news.

Contacted in Madrid on Friday, Roubini said the world economy was "at a breaking point". He believes the stock markets are now "essentially in free fall" and "we are reaching the point of sheer panic".

For all his recent predictive success, his critics still urge calm. They charge he is a professional doom-monger who was banging on about recession for years as the economy boomed. Roubini is stung by such charges, dismissing them as "pathetic".

He takes no pleasure in bad news, he says, but he makes his standpoint clear: "Frankly I was right." A combative, complex man, he is fond of the word "frankly", which may be appropriate for someone so used to delivering bad news.

Born in Istanbul 49 years ago, he comes from a family of Iranian Jews. They moved to Tehran, then to Tel Aviv and finally to Italy, where he grew up and attended college, graduating summa cum laude in economics from Bocconi University before taking a PhD in international economics at Harvard.

Fluent in English, Italian, Hebrew, and Persian, Roubini has one of those "international man of mystery" accents: think Henry Kissinger without the bonhomie. Single, he lives in a loft in Manhattan's trendy Tribeca, an area popularised by Robert De Niro, and collects contemporary art.

Despite his slightly mad-professor look, he is at pains to make clear he is normal. "I'm not a geek," said Roubini, who sounds rather concerned that people might think he is. "I mean it frankly. I'm not a geek."

He is, however, ferociously bright. When he left Harvard, he moved quickly, holding various positions at the Treasury department, rising to become an economic adviser to Bill Clinton in the late 1990s. Then his profile seemed to plateau. His doubts about the economic outlook seemed out of tune with the times, especially when a few years ago he began predicting a meltdown in the financial markets through his blog, hosted on RGEmonitor. com, the website of his advisory company.

But it was a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September 2006 that earned him his nickname Dr Doom.

Roubini told an audience of fellow economists that a generational crisis was coming. A once-in-a-lifetime housing bust would lay waste to the US economy as oil prices soared, consumers stopped shopping and the country went into a deep recession.

The collapse of the mortgage market would trigger a global meltdown, as trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unravelled. The shockwaves would destroy banks and other big financial institutions such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, America's largest home loan lenders.

"I think perhaps we will need a stiff drink after that," the moderator said. Members of the audience laughed.

Economics is not called the dismal science for nothing. While the public might be impressed by Nostradamus-like predictions, economists want figures and equations. Anirvan Banerji, economist with the New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute, summed up the feeling of many of those at the IMF meeting when he delivered his response to Roubini's talk.

Banerji questioned Roubini's assumptions, said they were not based on mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a Cassandra. At first, indeed, it seemed Roubini was wrong. Meltdown did not happen. Even by the end of 2007, the financial and economic outlook was grim but not disastrous.

Then, in February 2008, Roubini posted an entry on his blog headlined: "The rising risk of a systemic financial meltdown: the twelve steps to financial disaster".

It detailed how the housing market collapse would lead to huge losses for the financial system, particularly in the vehicles used to securitise loans. It warned that " a national bank" might go bust, and that, as trouble deepened, investment banks and hedge funds might collapse.

Even Roubini was taken aback at how quickly this scenario unfolded. The following month the US investment bank Bear Stearns went under. Since then, the pace and scale of the disaster has accelerated and, as Roubini predicted, the banking sector has been destroyed, Freddie and Fannie have collapsed, stock markets have gone mad and the economy has entered a frightening recession.

Roubini says he was able to predict the catastrophe so accurately because of his "holistic" approach to the crisis and his ability to work outside traditional economic disciplines. A long-time student of financial crises, he looked at the history and politics of past crises as well as the economic models.

"These crises don't come out of nowhere," he said. "Usually they arrive because of a systematic increase in a variety of asset and credit bubbles, macro-economic policies and other vulnerabilities. If you combine them, you may not get the timing right but you get an indication that you are closer to a tipping point."

Others who claimed the economy would escape a recession had been swept up in "a critical euphoria and mania, an irrational exuberance", he said. And many financial pundits, he believes, were just talking up their own vested interests. "I might be right or wrong, but I have never traded, bought or sold a single security in my life. I am trying to be as objective as I can."

What does his objectivity tell him now? No end is yet in sight to the crisis.

"Every time there has been a severe crisis in the last six months, people have said this is the catastrophic event that signals the bottom. They said it after Bear Stearns, after Fannie and Freddie, after AIG [the giant US insurer that had to be rescued], and after [the $700 billion bailout plan]. Each time they have called the bottom, and the bottom has not been reached."

Across the world, governments have taken more and more aggressive actions to stop the panic. However, Roubini believes investors appear to have lost confidence in governments' ability to sort out the mess.

The announcement of the US government's $700 billion bailout, Gordon Brown's grand bank rescue plan and the coordinated response of governments around the world has done little to calm the situation. "It's been a slaughter, day after day after day," said Roubini. "Markets are dysfunctional; they are totally unhinged." Economic fundamentals no longer apply, he believes.

"Even using the nuclear option of guaranteeing everything, providing unlimited liquidity, nationalising the banks, making clear that nobody of importance is going to be allowed to fail, even that has not helped. We are reaching a breaking point, frankly."

He believes governments will have to come up with an even bigger international rescue, and that the US is facing "multi-year economic stagnation".

Given such cataclysmic talk, some experts fear his new-found influence may be a bad thing in such troubled times. One senior Wall Street figure said: "He is clearly very bright and thoughtful when he is not shooting from the hip."

He said he found some of Roubini's comments "slapdash and silly". "Sometimes the rigour of his analysis seems to be missing," he said.

Banerji still has problems with Roubini's prescient IMF speech. "He has been very accurate in terms of what would happen," he said. But Roubini was predicting an "imminent" recession by the start of 2007 and he was wrong. "He hurt his credibility by being so pessimistic long before it was appropriate."

Banerji said on average the US economy had grown for five years before hitting a bad patch. "Roubini started predicting a recession four years ago and saying it was imminent. He kept changing his justification: first the trade deficit, the current account deficit, then the oil price spike, then the housing downturn and so on. But the recession actually did not arrive," he said.

"If you are an investor or a businessman and you took him seriously four years ago, what on earth would happen to you? You would be in a foetal position for years. This is why the timing is critical. It's not enough to know what will happen in some point in the distant future."

Roubini says the argument about content and timing is irrelevant. "People who have been totally blinded and wrong accusing me of getting the timing wrong, it's just a joke," he said. "It's a bit pathetic, frankly. I was not making generic statements. I have made very specific predictions and I have been right all along." Maybe so, but he does not sound too happy about it, frankly.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Online File Sharing Comparison










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Service Free storage space Additional storage File size limit Upload methods Syncing? Other features Web site



















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Box.net1 GB5 GB for $7.95/month; 15 GB for $19.95/month 25 MB free, 1 GB paid accountsWeb-based, or through manual syncing hacks.Through Windows and Mac hacksNumerous web app interfaces (faxing, photo editing, etc.); iCal hosting support; Gmail and Outlook mailing integration. box.net

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Drop.io100 MB per "drop"100 MB for free "drops"; 1 GB codes for $10/year 100 MB per "drop"Browser, email, phone call (for audio recording), faxing of documents, blog widgetsNoNo registration required, passwords optional; Firefox extension (Drag & Drop.io) quickly makes new drops. drop.io

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Dropbox2 GB50 GB for $10/month or $99/year No limit for desktop-synced files; 350 MB through web interfaceSoftware client (Windows, Mac and Linux), iGoogle gadget, web interface.Yes, across systems and with shared files. Revision history saving of documents; multi-user shared foldersgetdropbox.com

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EatLime1 GB with registration, 100 MB without.n/aSame as storage space.Web-basedNo.Files can be downloaded as they're uploaded in real time. eatlime.com

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Humyo30 GB with sign-up; 25 GB must be media files. 100 GB for $60 first year, $80 each year after.NoneWeb and Windows clientThrough Windows clientOnline file editing (non-media); Mobile phone access. NOTE: Files deleted after 90 days if not accessed) humyo.com

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Mozy2 GB$4.95/month for unlimited space for home users. NoneWindows and Mac synchronization clients only.Yes
mozy.com

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Oosah1 TB of media files ONLYPremium subscriptions available.200 MB per video, 9 MB per audio fileWeb-based (but can drag and drop from Flickr, YouTube, and other webapps) Across webapps.Webapp synchronization, live streaming of media files.oosah.com

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Orbitfiles6 GB$5/month50 MBWindows client or web site.Through Windows client.Can sell original files with 2% commission, auto web embed creator. orbitfiles.com

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Windows Live SkyDrive5 GBn/a 50MBWeb site or ActiveX plug-in for Windows explorer.NoRSS feeds for shared and public folders; integrates with Live Spaces account.skydrive.live.com

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Windows Live Mesh5 GBn/aUnknownWeb site, Windows-based explorer plug-ins. Yes (through Live Mesh client)OS X and mobile support to come; Remote desktop access through computers running client.mesh.com

Gov. Palin Alaska Rap

Women of the World

Miss Universe 2006

Thursday, October 16, 2008

36 Resume Ideas


36 Beautiful Resume Ideas That Work

Make your resume stand out by using a beautiful design that most people have never seen before. Here are some terrific resume ideas to inspire you.

You might want to bookmark this article and come back to it when you're updating your resume. Enjoy!

Beautiful resume designs

Kenji Enos resume Christopher Mcadams resume
Karla Martinez resume Rob Stinogle resume
Scott Tiger resume Julie Betters Resume
Salma Kadir resume Daniel Marcoux resume
Chevaughn Clowney resume Matthew Weidner resume
Julia Lund resume Sherry Chaumpluke resume
Andre Morgan resume Derek Benvenuti resume
Scott Spindler resume Roger Pallan resume
Colin Nederkoorn resume Jessica Edwards resume
Anthony Zinser resume Kevin Fox
Elizabeth Lind resume Joshua Clark resume
Rafael Vibar Banzuela resume David Fernandez resume
Graeme Findlay Resume Hertell Resume
Tasha Lee Resume Ryan Thomas resume
Manik Rathee resume Ryan Gilden resume
Erin Lindsey resume Terry Dee Resume
Sara Rohacik resume Asher Bryan Eggleston resume
Sean David Coe resume Jeffrey French resume

Bonus designer alternative resume

Michael Mangus resume

Although you would never send this to an Israeli diamond dealer or your local chick sexer, the mix of drawing and print on top of "the back of an envelope" really makes this resume memorable.





Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Can soy supplements keep your blood vessels healthy?



 
 

Sent to you by TO-Double-D via Google Reader:

 
 

via Consumer Reports Health Blog by Consumer Reports Health Blog on 10/7/08

Soy In many Asian countries, soybeans have been part of the traditional diet for thousands of years. Soy has also become increasingly more popular in the West, both in Asian-style cooking and in vegetarian foods, like meat substitutes and non-dairy milk products.

A diet rich in pulses, including soy, along with plenty of fruits and vegetables, seems to be one of the healthiest ways to eat. While it's important to eat a balanced overall diet, researchers have also wondered whether specific chemicals from soy can be beneficial when they're taken on their own.

A new study has looked at capsules containing soy extracts called isoflavones. The study, based in Hong Kong, looked at around a hundred people who had all had a stroke at some point in the past. The average age was 66 years.

Half the people took the supplements for 12 weeks, and the rest were given a placebo, for comparison. Everyone kept on taking their usual medications, too.

At the end of the study, researchers used an ultrasound scanner to see how well people's arteries could expand. If your arteries can widen easily to let more blood through, it's a sign that your blood vessels are healthy.

At the start of the study, about 8 in 10 people had blood vessels that didn't expand very well. After treatment, this dropped to 6 in 10 for people taking isoflavones, but barely changed for people taking a placebo. However, taking isoflavones didn't improve people's heart rates or blood pressure.

It's important to think about what this study doesn't tell us, as much as what it does. Although the study shows promise, we don't yet know if there are real-life benefits to taking isoflavones, like living longer or being less likely to have a stroke. All we can say at the moment is that these supplements helped improve the health of people's arteries.

It's also important to remember that the people in the study kept on with the drugs they'd been prescribed by their doctors. The researchers stress that isoflavones aren't a replacement for conventional medications.

The people were taking capsules containing an 80 milligram (mg) dose of isoflavones every day. We don't know whether eating foods containing isoflavones, like soy products and chickpeas, would have the same effects. However, these foods tend to have lots of fiber and vitamins, with low amounts of saturated fat, so they're unlikely to do you any harm.

What you need to know. If you're interested in the idea of taking isoflavone supplements, it's a good idea to check with your doctor or pharmacist first. Natural supplements can sometimes cause side effects or react with other medicines you're taking, so it's best to get professional advice before you start.

—Philip Wilson, patient editor, BMJ Group

ConsumerReportsHealth.org has partnered with The BMJ Group to monitor the latest medical research and assess the evidence to help you decide which news you should use.

Check out our Natural Medicine Ratings for soy (subscribers only), and read more about how to reduce your risk of a stroke (free).


 
 

Things you can do from here:

 
 

Beached


Beached from Keith Loutit on Vimeo.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

11 Web Based Tools 4 Designers

11 Free And Helpful Web Based Tools That Every Designer May Want To Know!

Today, we are listing another 11 Free And Helpful Web Based Tools That Every Designer May Want To Know! We tried to make this list most useful and interesting for every designer. Most of them are not very well known, but they are really amazing in respect to their features. Just take a look at them and share your thought's here.

You are welcome to share if you know more free web based tools for designer which our readers may like. Do you want to be the first one to know the latest happenings at SmashingApps.com just subscribe to our rss feed

I will appreciate if you can spread the word via Digg, Stumbleupon or other social media websites, Thank you

splashup

splashup

Splashup is a powerful editing tool and photo manager. With all the features professionals use and novices want, it's easy to use, works in real-time and allows you to edit many images at once.

ResizR

resizr

ResizR is a nifty, free and very useful little helper. ResizR allows you to resize an image from your local computer or the web.

adhesiontext

adhesiontext

adhesiontext is a dynamic text tool. This is to provide texts with a limited set of characters in several pseudo-languages. These can be particularly useful for typeface designers and font developers, especially during early work stages.

CSS Layout Generator

CSS Layout Generator

This generator will create a fluid or fixed width floated column layout, with up to 3 columns and with header and footer. Values can be specified in either pixels, ems or percentages.

PatternCooler

PatternCooler

Add your own colors to contemporary and retro pattern designs, or browse from thousands of pre-colored patterns in the seamless pattern background library. All artworks on this site can be used freely on personal blogs, mobile phone wallpapers, MySpace profiles and non-commercial web projects.

ThinkFree

thinkfree online

Enjoy instant access to your files, and share them with colleagues and friends anytime, anywhere. Documents editing is fundamental.

ColorSchemer ColorPix

ColorSchemer ColorPix

ColorPix is a useful little color picker that grabs the pixel under your mouse and transforms it into a number of different color formats. You can use the built-in magnifier to zoom in on your screen, click on a color value to copy it directly to the clipboard, and even keep ColorPix on top of all other apps and out of the way.

net2ftp

net2ftp

net2ftp is a web based FTP client. It is mainly aimed at managing websites using a browser. Edit code, upload/download files, copy/move/delete directories recursively, rename files and directories — without installing any software.

Remember The Milk

remember-milk

An intuitive interface makes managing tasks fun. Set due dates easily with next Friday or in 2 weeks. Extensive keyboard shortcuts make task management quicker than ever. Receive reminders via email, SMS, and instant messengers. Adding tasks is as simple as firing off an email (even from your phone) and much more…

Picreflect

Picreflect

Picreflect helps you to give the reflection on any image, to resize your image, to make them tranparent or rotate them to any angle.

Colors on the Web

colors-on-the-web

This site is dedicated to the use of colors in design, and especially in web design. This site will give web designers a better understanding of the importance of colors– that there might be more to colors than you once thought.